Dólar pode atingir R$ 7, prevê Morgan Stanley

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O dólar pode chegar a R$ 7 em um cenário de dominância fiscal, segundo avaliação do banco americano Morgan Stanley.

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Historicamente, o desempenho do real tem alguma relação com o diferencial de juros, conforme aponta a estrategista Ioana Zamfir.

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A piora na percepção de risco fiscal pode levar a mais prêmios de risco precificados tanto no câmbio quanto nos juros.

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Atualmente, o real não tem respondido aos contínuos aumentos de juros, sinalizando um possível cenário de dominância fiscal.

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No cenário base do banco, o dólar deve ficar em torno de R$ 6,30 no segundo semestre de 2025, podendo atingir R$ 5,40 em um cenário mais otimista.

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